Well, this thread will make me look like either a total idiot come Wednesday or rather insightful, but I'll take that chance. I honestly believe that the election will be less than 1% point. McCain has a big hill to climb, and I'm not sure if he can, but he's got a good shot at it.

1- Time is low, but momentum is on McCain's side. Polls that just a week ago had McCain 10 points down now have him 4-5 points down. Look deeper in the polls and McCain and Obama now have equal favorable numbers as well as McCain has made huge gains on important issues.

2- McCain's numbers have been tied to the DOW Jones Index. The worst the DOW drops, the lower McCain's numbers. People look at their IRA's and get mad and that anger transfers to McCain. What are they going to see this weekend? This week, the DOW jumped 1000 points(+/-). That's a big sigh of relief for a lot of people. This has been a monumental week for the DOW.

3- The youth vote is very pro-Obama, but will they actually make it to the polls? All of the numbers are factoring in a big turnout for the 18-27 crowd, but history says they never actually make it to the polls in heavy numbers.

4- The elderly will show up in numbers. This is a tough one b/c polling suggest that the elderly are evenly split. I don't buy that. Its hard to argue with the numbers, but I just don't believe McCain is tied with Obama with the elderly.

5- 14% of people can be persuaded. I think that's a slightly bogus number, but still, there is a large amount of people out there that could still swing. Momentum is key and as I said its all McCain right now. Obama is making some missteps that don't help his image. Acting like the race is over, kicking reporters off the plane....its minor stuff, but there's nothing Obama is doing that you can look at and say "good move". Personally I think getting Bill Clinton and Al Gore to close for him is a horrible decision. Especially Al Gore in Florida is a horrible choice.

6- Obama still hasn't hit 50% in the polls. Or is just barely at the 50% mark. That's not good for the amount of money and exposure he's had.

7- 527's are finally turning the heat up on Obama. Ads explaining the born alive act are in heavy rotation in key states from what I understand. When 95% of people don't support partial birth abortion ads like this are powerful.

So in summation, I'm not ready to call it a win for McCain, but I absolutely believe this is going to be very close.

I hope to god Obama wins.....the rest of the world shouldnt have to suffer another, what 8 years of an John 'Bush' McCain....please no....

@MenInTights:

Sounds like a reasonable analysis. All I can say is a truism, which everybody advances: This time, there are so many incalculable factors involved, it's almost impossible to predict the outcome. How large is the number of people who don't vote for Obama just because he's black? How much are people really affected by the financial crisis? Is there a Bradley-effect?

I guess we can't know before Tuesday.

It's no secret I keep my fingers crossed for Obama, though. ;)

I find little basis for argument with your analysis, even if it seems a shade rosy in its presumptions. Remember, however, that Gore got more of the popular vote you're looking at than did Bush in 2000. The current state-by-state electoral map (here calculated via pollster.com's comprehensive 'poll of polls') gives a clearer indication of the severe grade McCain will need to surmount in order to actually claim the presidency on Tuesday.

Yeah, I don't think Obama's got this one in the can just yet. McCain's third debate performance was pretty good, and the whole Joe the Plumber thing, as dumb as I may think it is, did get him quite a lot of attention. I just wish McCain didn't surround himself with idiots and people who want to start the cold war again, cause I really like the guy himself. I went into this campaign thinking "Awesome, Obama and McCain, I can't lose!" Not so much, anymore.

I completely agree with you. And like I said from the beginning, no way McCain will lose.

Uh, well, it will be close. :p

I'd just like to point out that in 2004 on this day in the campaign the battleground states of Ohio, Iowa, Florida, and New Mexico were supposed to go to Kerry. This election they are supposed to go to Obama by basically the same margins... and last time they all went red with comfortable majorities.

Like I've been saying, it's not over til its over.